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Will China Dominate the 21st Century?, by Jonathan Fenby
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China's spectacular growth has led to visions of the 21st century being dominated by the last major state on earth ruled by a Communist Party, its forward march seemingly unstoppable when contrasted with the West and Japan.
In this book, Jonathan Fenby, a leading expert on the People's Republic, makes plain that China, too, faces major challenges which stand in the way of global domination. It has to deal with political, economic, social and international tests, each of which involves structural difficulties that will put the system under strain. The picture of China invoked by admirers to argue that it will rule the world does not accord with reality.
Based on Fenby's extensive knowledge of contemporary China, this punchy analysis offers a pragmatic view of where the PRC is heading at a time when its future is too important an issue for wishful theorizing.
- Sales Rank: #902542 in Books
- Published on: 2014-01-13
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 7.50" h x .50" w x 4.90" l, .35 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 120 pages
Review
"A very readable and plausible take on why China will not dominate the twenty-first century."
International Affairs
"Leading China commentator Jonathan Fenby’s latest book on China's position in the world offers a nuanced picture of the country's strengths and weaknesses." China Daily "Fenby understands to its deepest roots the nature of Chinese Communist Party rule and its effect throughout society. The Party will, therefore, hate his eloquent and merciless dissection of its entire record and performance. But readers new to China should start right here." Jonathan Mirsky, Times Higher Education "An excellent summary of the broad spectrum of very serious issues China faces in the immediate future." Fraser Howie, author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise "The development of any country is accompanied by twists and turns. This book is a reminder that it is still too early to position the world at the dawn of a Chinese century." Global Times "Fenby's concise, yet comprehensive, essay should be the first thing read by anyone with an interest - business, political, or intellectual - in the future of China." Charles Horner, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute "An excellent, current guide to the challenges and dangers ahead for modern China. It describes, with verve and insight, why the 'China Dream' may lead to a chilly awakening. Fenby, a delightful writer, explains why China will not dominate the 21st century, with compelling critiques and a sharp, clear summary of its economic and political challenges."
Robert B. Zoellick, former president of the World Bank Group, U.S. Trade Representative, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
"Jonathan Fenby offers a well-informed and balanced assessment of China's past and prospects, recognising its remarkable economic achievements but also noting the huge economic, social and political challenges it confronts. China will not, he concludes, dominate the world in the 21st century. He is almost certainly right."
Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, the Financial Times
"A smart, wise, well written essay which answers with much common sense and learning one of the biggest questions of our time."
Chris Patten
"An excellent summary of the broad spectrum of very serious issues China faces in the immediate future."
Fraser Howie, author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise
"In this brief but thought-provoking book, acclaimed China specialist Jonathan Fenby challenges and punctures a number of myths about China's rise and offers valuable insights its current dilemmas and unpredictable future. A stimulating 'must read' for all observers of the China scene."
David Shambaugh, George Washington University and the Brookings Institution
"Jonathan Fenby has managed a highly impressive feat: within a short and elegant text, he has pinpointed the real challenges facing China today if it is truly to become a global actor that will play a serious role in the coming century. The insights give us a road-map for what we might expect from this superpower in the making. A compelling and essential read from a premier China analyst."
Rana Mitter, author of China's War with Japan, 1937-1945: The Struggle for Survival
"China is a bubble in multiple ways - not least in the way its supposed never-ending rise is interpreted and understood in the west. Jonathan Fenby shows courage and insight in pricking the bubble in this important book."
Will Hutton
"Fenby's thoughtful, balanced analysis of what China has achieved, how it has done so, and the challenges ahead is an excellent corrective to the surfeit of overly laudatory and excessively dire assessments of China's future and its implications for the world."
Thomas Fingar, Stanford University
"In this spirited and insightful book, Jonathan Fenby takes on the China bulls with a clear-eyed look at China’s dysfunctional political system, which does not appear up to the task of tackling the social, legal, economic, environmental, demographic and security challenges facing the country. Highly recommended."
Joseph Fewsmith, Boston University, author of The Logic and Limits of Political Reform in China
"In the flood of books on China, this is one of the most concise and clearly written."
The Age
"The beauty of Fenby’s book is that it is superbly concise; with over 30 years’ experience of covering China, Fenby is able to distil complex ideas down to their core elements and burnish them with accompanying illustrative anecdotes."
LSE Review of Books
About the Author
Jonathan Fenby is a former editor of the Observer and South China Morning Post and a founding partner and Managing Director of Trusted Sources Research Service. He is an author of several popular books on China, including the acclaimed Tiger Head, Snake Tails (2013) and The Penguin History of Modern China (2009).
Most helpful customer reviews
7 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent and incisive
By E. N. Anderson
The short answer is "no." The long form, in this booklet, is a list of China's immediate problems, all of which would have to be solved if the country seriously wants to dominate much of anything. Among the most obvious and immediate problems are massive environmental devastation including loss of farmland; a command economy that is too big and dynamic to be effectively controlled by the small elite who controls it; rampant corruption; poor quality goods, from contaminated milk to fake Gucci handbags; and above all a sclerotized political system that is increasingly intolerant of even the suggestion or hint of criticism. With that attitude, it feels it must suppress all serious reform or change, not a good plan for the future.
Critics will point to the reforms that have indeed occurred, regularly, over the last 40 years, but Fenby shows they are often rather cosmetic. A more serious criticism is that the Chinese people remain the tough, resilient, hopeful people they have always been. They have survived a great deal over time and will probably survive this. On recent visits to China I become more and more impressed with the degree that people can remain upbeat and hard-working in spite of an appalling pollution load, pervasive corruption, and an uncertain future.
This book could be longer and more detailed--at around 30,000 words it's more a long article than a book. Fenby also could be somewhat faulted for lack of proportion: he talks about minor economic glitches and the devastating pollution crisis as if they were equivalent, which they are not. The economic glitches could, and probably will, be solved easily. The pollution of soil, air and water is here to stay for the foreseeable future, and, as he reports, is killing millions of people a year. I think that China will hit an ecological wall when waste and pollution of water become really serious; economists who talk about "infinite substitutability" of resources never think of water. Food is also critical, with farmland down to the bare minimum and the country buying vast tracts of Africa and Brazil. Economic lock-ins make cleanup ever more difficult.
Another dangerous development, mentioned but not perhaps discussed enough, is the rise of serious ethnic hatred. One now hears really bad things said by ordinary people about Tibetans, Uighurs, and Japanese--things that would not have been openly said even a few years ago. Until now, China was free of the devastating ethnic and religious hatreds that paralyze the US, India, Pakistan, and other countries. Trouble may be ahead in this area.
One can only agree with Fenby that China has no chance of dominating the 21st century, unless massive reform occurs. Fenby well describes the problem that occurs as an aging elite, supported on a pyramid of dubious reliability, has to fight against citizen protest and advocacy, to maintain its power. Its reach now extends to American media and academia; newspapers and professors are threatened with being banned from China if they so much as report protest.
The future is unclear. The people could somehow find spokespersons in the elite, and force change while there is time. Conversely, a nightmare scenario might have the United States collapsing economically (as its banking system and oil firms get more and more criminal and dysfunctional), taking the Chinese economy down with it. Jose Luis Borges' imaginary "Chinese" curse, "May you live in interesting times," has come to pass.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
The Questionable Return of the Middle Kingdom
By Chris Ziesler
As soon as I finished Henry Kissinger's magisterial work On China I immediately set about searching for an alternative voice to provide a complementary perspective to Kissinger's view. I discovered that there is now a small industry in writing commentaries on China but as in many fast-growing industries quality is often the first casualty of a hurried rush to market.
Browsing through the various, often over-boosted books on China Jonathan Fenby's caught my eye for the simple reason that Fenby had had the benefit of working as editor of the South China Morning Post for five years (1995-2000) at a particularly significant time in China's growing rapprochement with the West and therefore had direct day-to-day experience of life and politics in China.
I found Fenby's style lucid and accessible, his themes well developed and solidly grounded in his direct dealings with China and her people. He explains clearly the main areas of difficulty that China is facing as it develops its economy and civil society and increases its interaction with the West.
As its title suggest Fenby's book is primarily concerned with the question of whether China will come to dominate the 21st century? In his account of their history and the Government's vision for the country Fenby mirrors Kissinger's view of how China sees itself and where it would like to go. Where Fenby diverges from Kissinger is in how successful he thinks China will be in surmounting the challenges it must overcome to achieve this vision. Kissinger believes that Chinese determination, tenacity, skill and entrepreneurship would find a way to overcome the difficulties. Fenby makes a compelling case that unless major changes are made in the way the country is run then ultimately the fundamental paradox of economic but not political freedom at the heart of the way the Communist Party governs the country will limit the success of the Chinese people in achieving their aspirations. The interest and the relevance of this book lie in the reasons that Fenby lays out as to why he believes this to be the case.
This short, but detailed account of modern China deserves to be more widely known and read.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
A thoughtful contribution
By Lost John
'China finds itself at a watershed in which it needs to change but knows that change will face it with its biggest test since Deng Xiaoping found the way out of the disaster of the Mao era in the late 1970s.' 'The spectre of Gorbachev and the Bourbon monarchy is never far away.'
This is, in effect, a 24,000 word essay divided into five convenient chapters. As one would expect from a journalist of Jonathan Fenby's caliber, the prose flows well, is not in any way a difficult read, and is well-larded with historic fact and quotations. Furthermore, it is as up-to date as can be expected of anything not published as newsprint (or on the Internet) - there are 40 references to 2013 events and developments (using Amazon's 'Search Inside' facility the count was easy) - and it is not, as I had anticipated, merely a reproduction with editorial smoothing of pieces that have already appeared in newspapers.
A seasoned China watcher, Fenby does not sport rose-tinted spectacles, and does not subscribe to the popular view that the 21st Century will be China's century. This is a thoughtful contribution to any discussion on the matter. Be sure to read it soon, though, as various aspects of China's internal situation and its relationships with neighbors and some other foreign countries continue to develop rather fast. Within 12 months the book is likely to need an update.
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